Gold Price Forecast 2025, XAU/USD shows renewed bullish momentum as Smart Money targets the 4,240 liquidity pool after engineering inducement below 4,000. Institutional order flow remains constructive with upside liquidity targets opening toward 4,280.
Introduction
( Gold Price Forecast 2025 ) Let’s not sugarcoat anything the current gold structure is textbook Smart Money engineering. The algo intentionally flushed liquidity below 4,000, swept the entire October breaker structure, and is now delivering back toward the next external buy-side liquidity at 4,240.
The narrative is simple
HTF structure is still bullish, major liquidity remains unmitigated above, and the downside sweep already happened. Anyone still looking for immediate large-scale bearish continuation is ignoring the actual algo delivery and the liquidity map.
Based on your charts (D1, H4, H1, M30), the market is in the premium re-pricing phase, aligned with ICT’s bullish weekly cycle
Monday manipulation → Tuesday expansion → Wednesday continuation → Thursday fill → Friday distribution.
Right now, XAU/USD is executing the expansion leg.
D1 Daily Chart Institutional Outlook
The Daily timeframe gives you the real story. Structure hasn’t changed:
1.Liquidity Sweep Completed
- The algo swept the 3,980 liquidity pool (PDL cluster).
- That was the last daily-level sell-side liquidity that needed to be cleared.
- Once swept, price aggressively reversed confirming a bullish re-pricing.
2.Price Is Now Repricing Toward External Buyside Liquidity
4,240 The next Daily external buy-side liquidity
There is no HTF bearish order block holding price down right now.
The last bearish OB was already mitigated on the drop from 4,350 → 3,980.
3.FVG Structure
A clean Daily FVG sits between 4,180–4,240.
That area is the magnet.
4.Premium/Discount Logic
Midnight NY Open sits below current price → market is trading in a premium delivery expansion model, signaling:
- Smart Money is not discount-hunting
- They are engineering premium-side liquidity
Everything points toward bullish continuation until 4,240 is taken.
H4 Smart Money Flow & Intermediate Liquidity Targets
1.H4 Structure Broke Bearish Cycle
Price created:
- A sell-side sweep
- A strong displacement candle (vector candle)
- A clean BOS
- A new H4 bullish order block at 4,040–4,060
This is your current institutional re-entry zone.
2.Liquidity Above Is Thin
Above current price, the chart shows:
- Equal highs at 4,225
- Untapped highs at 4,240
- A previous range imbalance at 4,260
Smart Money won’t ignore these pools.
3. FVG Alignment
H4 FVGs stack directly into the D1 inefficiency, creating a multi-TF liquidity void a perfect continuation signal.
4.Conclusion (H4)
Bias stays bullish unless 4,040 breaks and that’s unlikely because it’s the new protected low engineered by the bullish displacement.
H1 Session Liquidity Cycle (Asia → London → NY)
H1 is where the narrative becomes impossible to argue with.
1.Asia Engineered Inducement
Asian session created:
- A narrow consolidation range
- Weak highs
- Inducement directly below session resistance
2.London Swept Asia High
London Open grabbed:
- Asia High
- Frankfurt liquidity
- The micro inefficiency above 4,100
This was the “fake move”.
3.New York Alignment
NY session aligned with bullish continuation not reversal.
This confirms the true directional intent.
4.The Rejection Block at 4,160
NY created a rejection block at 4,160, which is now acting as the next mitigation point before price attacks 4,200–4,240.
M30 Execution Model & Short-Term Delivery
M30 chart gives you the practical entry zones.
1.Rising Channel Isn’t Bullish It’s a Liquidity Engine
That ascending channel retail traders draw?
It’s not bullish support.
It’s liquidity buildup (internal BSL).
Once enough liquidity is engineered, the algo will:
- Sweep internal highs (4,120–4,150)
- Hit the 4,160 OB
- Then expand to the 4,200 → 4,240 target
2.M30 OB + FVG Alignment
The small bullish order block at 4,080–4,095 aligns perfectly with
- H1 internal FVG
- H4 structural OB
- D1 displacement origin
This is the optimal bullish continuation zone.
Execution Levels Institutional Key Levels (M30–M15)
Here are the actionable ICT levels no bullshit, no fluff.
Re-Entry Buy Zones
- 4,080–4,095 (Optimal high-probability zone)
H4 OB + M30 FVG + Smart Money re-entry zone - 4,040–4,060 (Deep mitigation; only if NY sweeps)
Upside Targets
- 4,160 – rejection block mitigation (first stop)
- 4,200 – intraday external BSL
- 4,240 – Daily buy-side external liquidity → primary target
- 4,260 – imbalance fill
Invalidation
If 4,040 breaks, the bullish model temporarily weakens but HTF bias still stays bullish unless 3,980 breaks, which is unlikely at this stage of the liquidity cycle.
M5 Micro-Timing Outlook
M5 confirms the bullish narrative through:
- Very clear build-up → sweep → expansion sequences
- Clean 1-minute FVGs aligning within M5 displacement
- Minor liquidity grabs happening on schedule with the 90-minute cycle
Smart Money clearly wants to push the market higher.
There is zero bearish structural intent on the micro timeframe.
Institutional Key Levels Table
| Level | Type | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 4,040 | Protected Low | Must hold for bullish delivery |
| 4,080–4,095 | Re-entry Zone | Ideal buy zone |
| 4,160 | Rejection Block | First upside stop |
| 4,200 | Intraday BSL | Minor liquidity |
| 4,240 | Primary Target | Daily BSL |
| 4,260 | Imbalance | Expansion target |
Risk Management Tips (No-Nonsense Version)
Stop trying to predict reversals.
That’s retail behavior and guaranteed to bleed accounts over time.
The only sensible approach:
- Do not short until 4,240 is taken
- Use tight SL under 4,080 if entering intraday longs
- Never enter inside consolidation wait for liquidity sweeps
If you ignore this, you will get steamrolled by the algo.
Alternate Scenario (Bearish Case)
The only way this market turns bearish short-term
4,040 breaks
A strong vector candle closes below it
NY session confirms a bearish displacement
Even then, downside would be limited to
➡ 4,000➡ 3,980 , Probability Low , Reason Sell-side liquidity already swept.
Final Outlook Summary Table
| Bias | Direction | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Primary Bias | Bullish | Sell-side sweep complete + bullish displacement |
| Short-Term Bias | Bullish | FVG alignment + OB mitigation |
| Weekly Target | 4,240 | Daily BSL |
| Daily Target | 4,160 → 4,200 | Internal liquidity |
| Invalidation | 4,040 | Protected low |
My Personal Thoughts
Bro honestly, the charts aren’t lying and the algo is making its intentions obvious right now.
Gold has fully switched back into a bullish delivery cycle ever since it cleared that 3,980 liquidity pool. All the major timeframes D1, H4, H1, even M30 are pointing to the exact same target: 4,240.
Everything lines up perfectly: the displacement, the inducements, the FVGs, the order blocks all of it is showing the same bullish narrative. Unless 4,040 gets taken out (and honestly that looks unlikely), Smart Money is clearly aiming to clean up the levels at 4,160 → 4,200 → 4,240
It’s literally one of the cleanest bullish continuation setups I’ve seen in a while.
Is gold still bullish after sweeping liquidity below 4,000
Yes. The drop below 3,980 was a Smart Money liquidity grab. After sweeping sell-side liquidity, gold shifted into a bullish delivery cycle across D1, H4, and H1. This confirms continuation toward 4,160, 4,200, and 4,240.
What is the next major liquidity target for XAU/USD
The next major institutional target is 4,240 — a clean Daily buy-side liquidity pool. It aligns with an unmitigated FVG and equal highs, making it the strongest upside magnet in the current cycle.
Which level invalidates the bullish outlook
4,040 is the protected low created by bullish displacement. As long as price stays above 4,040, Smart Money continues delivering higher. A break below it would only shift the short-term outlook, not the HTF bullish bias.
Why is 4,160 an important level for gold
4,160 is a New York session rejection block that needs mitigation before higher prices. It is the first key liquidity checkpoint before price expansion into 4,200 and the main target at 4,240.
Is it risky to short gold right now
Yes. Shorting into a fresh bullish displacement and stacked FVGs is fighting institutional order flow. Shorts only make sense after the 4,240 liquidity pool is taken and a reversal structure appears.
